Study predicts who’ll win Eurovision 2026
As the anticipation builds, we are less than one week away from Eurovision 2026, hosted in Vienna, Austria. This inspired the experts at Admiral Casino to predict which country is most likely to win the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest by utilising current and historic data… and the UK makes the top 10!
To create the ranking, they considered a multitude of factors: podium finishes, overall participation, poll results, bookmaker favourites, historical wins, Reddit sentiment analysis and how often each country has qualified.
Key Findings
- Finland ranked as the country most likely to win the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, followed by France and Israel.
- The UK ranks sixth overall, winning second place more times than the following three countries combined (16), alongside being the most positively discussed entry on Reddit
- Finland, Sweden and Australia are the most talked about countries on Reddit (under r/eurovision).
- 2026 Eurovision hosts Austria have an 11.4% chance of winning this year, ranking 14th in the study.
Top 10 Eurovision Contenders for 2026
| Predicted Rank | Country | No. of Wins | Reddit Positivity Mentions | Odds % | Poll Votes % | Prediction Rate(% chance of winning) |
| 1st | Finland | 1 | 71% | 30% | 20% | 28% |
| 2nd | France | 5 | 72% | 11% | 6% | 18% |
| 3rd | Israel | 4 | 73% | 5% | 3% | 17% |
| 4th | Ukraine | 3 | 75% | 3% | 1% | 16% |
| 5th | Denmark | 3 | 74% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| 6th | United Kingdom | 5 | 97% | 1% | 1% | 15% |
| 7th | Sweden | 7 | 70% | 4% | 6% | 15% |
| 8th | Switzerland | 3 | 69% | 0.20% | 1% | 14% |
| 9th | Italy | 3 | 68% | 3% | 3% | 13% |
| 10th | Greece | 1 | 74% | 7% | 6% | 12% |
To see the full data breakdown, please see here.
Admiral can reveal that Finland is most likely to win Eurovision 2026, leading with a 28% chance. Represented by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen with their song “Liekinheitin”, Finland has the highest chance of securing victory, with the highest betting odds of 30%, the highest Reddit visibility (2,100 mentions), and the highest poll votes at 20%.
France follows as a strong contender for this year’s competition, ranking second and represented by Monroe with the song “Regarde !”. France has a 18% chance of winning, due to having the second-highest number of historical wins. Their odds of winning currently stand at 11% according to bookmakers, and they hold the third-highest poll votes of 5.77%.
In third is Israel, entering this year’s Eurovision contest with a 17% chance of winning. The country is represented by Noam Bettan, with the song “Michelle”. Israel boasts four previous victories and maintains a Reddit positivity mention rate of 73%. Despite lower odds of 5% and poll percentages at 2.70%, their consistent performance in past contests indicates potential for a win.
The UK finally ranks in the top 10, ranking sixth with a prediction chance of winning at 15%. The UK is being represented by LOOK MUM NO COMPUTER, a YouTuber and electronics enthusiast, with his catchy track “Eins, Zwei, Drei”. Despite having the most second places (16) and five wins under their belt, bookmakers’ odds and poll votes rate the UK just 1% each.
The hosts of the 2026 Eurovision, Austria, rank 14th, boasting a prediction rate of 11%, represented by Cosmó and his song “Tanzschein”. The Austrian musical journey includes three previous wins, with last year being their most recent victory. They maintain 76% of positive mentions on Reddit, yet low odds and poll votes at 0.20% and 0.46%.
Methodology
- With the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest approaching, this inspired Admiral Casino to uncover which country is most likely to win, looking at a multitude of factors and historical data.
- Factors to consider were the number of podium finishes, overall participation, 2026 poll results, 2026 bookmaker favourites, number of host country wins, Reddit sentiment analysis, and how often each country has qualified. Sources: Eurovision Stats, Polls, Odds, Reddit, Reddit Data Collection Tool, Eurovision Results.
- All the data for each country was then weighted and scored to create a final winning percentage rate; the higher the score, the more likely they are to win the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest.
- All data was collected in April 2026 and is accurate as of then.