After more than a decade of digital disruption, the African entertainment and media industry has entered a new landscape – one where the media is no longer divided into distinct traditional and digital spheres, according to PwC’s “Entertainment and media outlook: 2015 – 2019 (South Africa – Nigeria-Kenya)”.
The report forecasts South Africa’s entertainment and media industry will expected to grow from R112.7BN in 2014 to R176.3BN in 2019, with an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4%. Digital spend is expected to fuel the overall growth, as South Africa’s Internet access market will rise rapidly from R32.5BN in 2014 to R76.2BN in 2019, far ahead of any other consumer spend category, making it the largest contributor to South Africa’s total entertainment and media revenues.
Vicki Myburgh, entertainment and media leader for PwC Southern Africa, says:
This year’s Outlook shows consumer demand for entertainment and media experiences will continue to grow, while migrating towards video and mobile. Increasingly, though, it’s clear that consumers see no significant divide between digital and traditional media – what they want is more flexibility, freedom and convenience in when, where and how they interact with their preferred content.
Consumers are choosing offerings that combine an outstanding and personalized user experience with an intuitive interface and easy access. This includes shared physical experiences like cinema and live concerts, which appear re-energized by digital and social media.
The Outlook presents annual historical data for 2010–2014 and provides annual forecasts for 2015–2019 in 11 entertainment and media segments for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya: the Internet, television, filmed entertainment, video games, business-to-business publishing, recorded music, newspaper publishing, magazine publishing, book publishing, out-of-home advertising and radio.
Aside from the Internet, the Outlook predicts that the fastest growth will be seen in video games, business-to-business and filmed entertainment.
But it is Internet access itself that is acting as a driver of revenues in video games and film, creating new revenue streams by making over-the-top (OTT)/streaming or social/casual gaming viable to more consumers and thereby cancelling out physical falls
Music, magazines and newspapers, which will show only moderate consumer growth, are three segments that face strong competition from the Internet. The music market was worth R2.01 billion in 2014, compared to R2.08 billion in 2013. Annual revenue is forecast to grow marginally by a CAGR of 1.3% over the next five years to remain relatively flat at R2.1 billion in 2019.
Television remains a highly significant contributor to consumer spending, with combined revenues from TV subscriptions, advertising and licence fees projected to reach R40.9 billion by 2019. The report also shows that one consistent trend – and not just in South Africa, but globally – is the rise in overall consumer spending through to 2019 on video-based content and services, against far flatter prospects for spending on primarily text-based content and services. If consumer revenue from TV subscriptions and licence fees is aggregated with that from video games, around R4.5 billion will be added between 2014 and 2019.
In contrast, consumer revenue from books, magazines and newspapers is expected to rise by just R1.3 billion over the entire forecast period.
Alongside video providers, a further thriving source of revenue over the coming five years will be live events. Revenue from live music is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.9% in the next five years, reaching R1.5 billion in 2019, up from R1 billion in 2014. Box office revenues are also steadily increasing at a CAGR of 3% to reach R972 million by the end of the forecast period.
The appeal of live entertainment has also had a positive effect on the related advertising revenues. South African cinema advertising revenue is also rising at a CAGR of 6.7% and will be worth an estimated R884 million in 2019.
The report shows that South Africa’s total entertainment and media advertising revenue is expected to rise by 5.6% from R39.7 billion in 2014 to R52.1 billion in 2019. TV advertising is by far the largest contributor to total advertising revenues, followed by newspaper advertising: however, their combined 52% share of total advertising in 2014 will fall slightly to 51% in 2019.
Despite the strong projections for advertising, its share of the entertainment and media mix is predicted to decrease by 2019 as consumer spending takes an ever larger part of the pie; from 35% in 2014, advertising will account for just 30% of spending in 2019.
Affordable Internet access will continue to digitally disrupt the market in novel and innovative ways. The ongoing spread of services to mobile networks, novel devices and emerging markets will change how media and entertainment are served, consumed and monetised in multiple ways. Affordable Internet access will also inhibit the revenue growth of various sectors as consumers use it to access free, ad-funded and lower-priced subscription-based versions of new and existing media services