ZenithOptimedia cuts global ad growth forecast, boosting U.S. growth estimate for 2011 and its global expectation for 2012, with China becoming the 3rd ad market this year and Internet – second-largest ad medium by 2013.
The global advertising growth forecast for 2011 was cut from 4.6% to 4.2% due to the turmoil in the Middle East and the earthquake in Japan.
ZenithOptimedia, in its 1st estimate, said the events in Japan and the Mideast will reduce ad expenditures by $2.4 bn in those regions in 2011.
Zenith’s global ad spending forecast for major media for 2011 is now $470.8 billion, slightly higher than its previous estimate of $470.4 billion unveiled in December given that it reported a higher than originally expected 2010 ad spending total of $451.9 billion.
After reducing the forecast, ZO said North American ad spending will hit $164.8 billion this year, up 2.6%, and expects Internet and China to reach key milestones earlier than previously forecast.
As ZO sees it, Internet will overtake newspapers and become world’s 2nd largest advertising medium in 2013
Zenith upgraded its forecast for 2012 global ad growth from 5.2% to 5.8%. The rebound in Japan and the Middle East after this year’s shocks are among the factors it cited.
Following the earth quake, Japan ad expenditures are projected to shrink 4.1% this year and grow 4.6% next year.